Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

469.08 – 347.59

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

555 – 594

Prediction missed · off by 166.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 711.2 ±11

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 228.49Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 68.51Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 172.08Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 824.9 ±8.7

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 140.01Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 105.21Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 102.37Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 180, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4400, 180, 10903

Auto

123.3 27%

Teleop

276.7 62%

Endgame

49.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9408, 346, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9408, 346, 8373

Auto

83.4 25%

Teleop

202.6 61%

Endgame

47.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.66 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score469.1pts

Blue projected score347.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.5
Score range: 268–549
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1149 vs event baseline 441.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

711.2Season APEX824.9

123.3Auto83.4

276.7Teleop202.6

49.5Endgame47

179Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	144
teleop	284	340
endgame	147	95
foul	5	15
total	555	594

Result

Final score

555 – 594

Prediction missed · off by 166.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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