Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

644.81 – 216.22

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

573 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 877.7 ±9.9

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 323.53Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 134.85Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 186.43Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 739.8 ±10.7

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 58.52Rank 52Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 14.7Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 143Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 695, 3044

/ 100 compat

Projected

644.8 pts

~3.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 973, 695, 3044

Auto

94.5 14%

Teleop

378.3 58%

Endgame

182.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 10291, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1807, 10291, 2713

Auto

64.3 29%

Teleop

120.3 54%

Endgame

38.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 3.17 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score644.8pts

Blue projected score216.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 428.6
Score range: 138–723
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 820 vs event baseline 431.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

877.7Season APEX739.8

94.5Auto64.3

378.3Teleop120.3

182.7Endgame38.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	29
teleop	277	122
endgame	179	96
foul	5	0
total	573	247

Result

Final score

573 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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