Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

468.64 – 386.53

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

392 – 470

Prediction missed · off by 80.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 810.7 ±9.5

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 142.93Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 209.6Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 116.11Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.5 ±9.9

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 201.66Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 80.47Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 104.4Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 2046, 3005

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.6 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 424, 2046, 3005

Auto

64.3 14%

Teleop

273.6 60%

Endgame

119.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 2586, 233

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1796, 2586, 233

Auto

98.9 26%

Teleop

189.6 49%

Endgame

97.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score468.6pts

Blue projected score386.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 309–547
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 862 vs event baseline 431.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

810.7Season APEX769.5

64.3Auto98.9

273.6Teleop189.6

119.1Endgame97.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	95
teleop	152	280
endgame	166	95
foul	0	0
total	392	470

Result

Final score

392 – 470

Prediction missed · off by 80.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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