Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.04 – 302.87

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 93.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.9 ±14.3

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 117.75Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 137.57Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 100.72Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.3 ±10.5

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 157.02Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 56.58Rank 65Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 89.27Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6988, 1577, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

356 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6988, 1577, 4206

Auto

57.6 17%

Teleop

209.6 62%

Endgame

70.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 1902, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 930, 1902, 9029

Auto

65.0 22%

Teleop

213.5 72%

Endgame

17.2 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score356pts

Blue projected score302.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.2
Score range: 224–435
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 436.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.9Season APEX640.3

57.6Auto65

209.6Teleop213.5

70.4Endgame17.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	63
teleop	138	200
endgame	14	81
foul	5	0
total	211	344

Result

Final score

211 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 93.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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