Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

539.37 – 549.06

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

429 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 717.5 ±8.7

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 173.74Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 216.28Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 149.35Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 789.8 ±8.7

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 160.41Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 131.69Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 256.96Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 948, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

539.4 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 948, 818

Auto

90.9 17%

Teleop

358.2 66%

Endgame

97.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 10553, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

549.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 4099, 10553, 9128

Auto

124.0 23%

Teleop

293.7 54%

Endgame

130.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.03 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score539.4pts

Blue projected score549.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 460–628
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 876 vs event baseline 436.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

717.5Season APEX789.8

90.9Auto124

358.2Teleop293.7

97.6Endgame130.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	151
teleop	251	185
endgame	75	96
foul	0	15
total	429	447

Result

Final score

429 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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