Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.75 – 361.1

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 194.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 826.9 ±10.7

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 171.52Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 111.33Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 192.9Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 734.6 ±11.2

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 173.87Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 58.72Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 128.51Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 10291, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6647, 10291, 346

Auto

88.4 19%

Teleop

267.5 57%

Endgame

112.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 148, 6988, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 148, 6988, 5948

Auto

54.9 16%

Teleop

193.9 57%

Endgame

91.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.7 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.8pts

Blue projected score361.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.6
Score range: 276–561
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 472.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

826.9Season APEX734.6

88.4Auto54.9

267.5Teleop193.9

112.6Endgame91.5

130Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	8
teleop	152	116
endgame	0	58
foul	0	45
total	220	227

Result

Final score

220 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 194.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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