Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

528.48 – 668.22

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

531 – 496

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±10.4

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 135.43Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 179.99Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 213.06Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 946.9 ±13

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 146.83Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 173.69Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 347.7Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3966, 2996, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3966, 2996, 9067

Auto

81.2 16%

Teleop

316.6 61%

Endgame

120.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6352, 1884, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

668.2 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 6352, 1884, 2910

Auto

115.2 18%

Teleop

340.0 52%

Endgame

201.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score528.5pts

Blue projected score668.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.7
Score range: 450–746
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 433.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX946.9

81.2Auto115.2

316.6Teleop340

120.8Endgame201.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	91
teleop	262	259
endgame	153	146
foul	60	0
total	531	496

Result

Final score

531 – 496

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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