Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

377.37 – 427.61

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 689.6 ±9.3

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 160.27Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 110.11Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 106.99Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 900.6 ±13.9

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 113.43Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 181.02Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 133.16Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5549, 9450, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.4 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5549, 9450, 3276

Auto

70.2 19%

Teleop

202.8 55%

Endgame

95.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3256, 341, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.6 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3256, 341, 4590

Auto

102.0 24%

Teleop

216.8 50%

Endgame

113.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score377.4pts

Blue projected score427.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 299–506
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 793 vs event baseline 434.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

689.6Season APEX900.6

70.2Auto102

202.8Teleop216.8

95.5Endgame113.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	130
teleop	217	219
endgame	117	38
foul	0	0
total	406	387

Result

Final score

406 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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