Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

471.94 – 297.46

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

380 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 769.8 ±14.3

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 51.53Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 146.65Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 273.76Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 807.7 ±10.7

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 174.93Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 38.68Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 83.85Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2783, 10935, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.9 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2783, 10935, 5216

Auto

93.3 20%

Teleop

281.9 60%

Endgame

92.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 599, 5948, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.5 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 599, 5948, 5414

Auto

48.2 17%

Teleop

166.8 58%

Endgame

72.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.84 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score471.9pts

Blue projected score297.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.5
Score range: 218–551
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 441.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

769.8Season APEX807.7

93.3Auto48.2

281.9Teleop166.8

92.2Endgame72.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	45
teleop	267	56
endgame	39	57
foul	20	0
total	380	158

Result

Final score

380 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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