Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.02 – 274.69

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

299 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 732.8 ±9.8

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 110.01Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 65.28Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 36.73Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 723.9 ±9.9

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 131.3Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 50.8Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 92.59Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 2370, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

212 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 180, 2370, 6436

Auto

40.7 20%

Teleop

120.6 58%

Endgame

46.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 233, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2713, 233, 4561

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

158.7 59%

Endgame

59.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score212pts

Blue projected score274.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.7
Score range: 131–356
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 712 vs event baseline 448.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

732.8Season APEX723.9

40.7Auto49.4

120.6Teleop158.7

46.9Endgame59

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	75
teleop	110	254
endgame	67	84
foul	15	0
total	299	413

Result

Final score

299 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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