Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

236.26 – 263.6

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 114.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764.9 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 9.2Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 96.29Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 130.77Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±10.5

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 51.37Rank 52Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 85.14Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 127.09Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 9029, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 88, 9029, 195

Auto

65.8 28%

Teleop

120.9 52%

Endgame

46.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 424, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.6 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1807, 424, 4400

Auto

61.0 23%

Teleop

143.7 55%

Endgame

55.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score263.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 155–345
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 452.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764.9Season APEX688.8

65.8Auto61

120.9Teleop143.7

46.9Endgame55.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	109
teleop	182	232
endgame	61	77
foul	25	15
total	295	433

Result

Final score

295 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 114.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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