Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.79 – 175.21

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 553

Prediction missed · off by 239 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.3 ±9.9

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 72.69Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 20.65Rank 65Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 122.45Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.5 ±9.3

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 103.59Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 49.43Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 22.19Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 1902, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 4206, 1902, 818

Auto

61.6 29%

Teleop

98.5 46%

Endgame

52.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 10979, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1796, 10979, 1922

Auto

45.8 27%

Teleop

104.6 62%

Endgame

19.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score215.8pts

Blue projected score175.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.6
Score range: 93–298
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 869 vs event baseline 452.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.3Season APEX794.5

61.6Auto45.8

98.5Teleop104.6

52.9Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	101
teleop	195	345
endgame	64	107
foul	0	0
total	316	553

Result

Final score

316 – 553

Prediction missed · off by 239 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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