Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.88 – 246.25

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

488 – 769

Prediction missed · off by 329.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 814.5 ±13.6

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 93.53Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 107.21Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 151.14Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 925.6 ±9.3

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 8.13Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 34.59Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 203.53Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1577, 10553, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1577, 10553, 2046

Auto

58.0 17%

Teleop

228.5 67%

Endgame

56.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 2052, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 346, 2052, 2910

Auto

56.4 24%

Teleop

140.7 60%

Endgame

39.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score351.9pts

Blue projected score246.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.6
Score range: 166–432
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1257 vs event baseline 444.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

814.5Season APEX925.6

58Auto56.4

228.5Teleop140.7

56.4Endgame39.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	121
teleop	225	439
endgame	142	159
foul	15	50
total	488	769

Result

Final score

488 – 769

Prediction missed · off by 329.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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