Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.52 – 241.54

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

564 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 214.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 920.1 ±13.9

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 106.86Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 106.37Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 140.29Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±11.2

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 127.52Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 100.5Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 13.52Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4590, 2194, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4590, 2194, 6036

Auto

49.5 15%

Teleop

200.2 59%

Endgame

91.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 948, 1884, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 948, 1884, 2783

Auto

30.8 15%

Teleop

113.8 54%

Endgame

67.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.71 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score353.5pts

Blue projected score241.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112
Score range: 164–432
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1024 vs event baseline 433.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

920.1Season APEX837.2

49.5Auto30.8

200.2Teleop113.8

91.2Endgame67.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	100
teleop	293	260
endgame	197	100
foul	0	0
total	564	460

Result

Final score

564 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 214.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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