Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.77 – 328.96

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

568 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 211.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±9.5

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 130.79Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 148.29Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 104.69Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.6 ±9.3

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 235.43Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 99.14Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -5.61Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 11463, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.8 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1540, 11463, 687

Auto

66.1 18%

Teleop

226.4 60%

Endgame

83.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5216, 3256, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

329 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5216, 3256, 6988

Auto

47.2 15%

Teleop

151.9 49%

Endgame

113.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score383.8pts

Blue projected score329pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: 253–460
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1135 vs event baseline 424.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.3Season APEX658.6

66.1Auto47.2

226.4Teleop151.9

83.5Endgame113

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	128
teleop	270	336
endgame	210	103
foul	5	0
total	568	567

Result

Final score

568 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 211.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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