Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.21 – 297.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

605 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 149 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 829.2 ±12.4

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 162Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 91.46Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 55.75Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 729.8 ±16

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 62.86Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

386Team Voltage

Season APEX 199Event APEX 72.93Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 162Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 6352, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9128, 6352, 10903

Auto

54.3 19%

Teleop

179.6 62%

Endgame

54.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10291, 386, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.8 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10291, 386, 10935

Auto

57.5 20%

Teleop

188.4 64%

Endgame

46.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score309.2pts

Blue projected score297.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.4
Score range: 222–385
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 905 vs event baseline 422.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

829.2Season APEX729.8

54.3Auto57.5

179.6Teleop188.4

54.2Endgame46.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	36
teleop	334	171
endgame	147	88
foul	10	5
total	605	300

Result

Final score

605 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 149 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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