Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

287.54 – 344.82

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

410 – 545

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 714.1 ±9.3

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 69.14Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 113.54Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 104.86Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.7 ±9.3

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 123.71Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 136.84Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 84.27Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3276, 9408, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3276, 9408, 5414

Auto

56.6 21%

Teleop

143.6 53%

Endgame

69.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1833, 2996, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1833, 2996, 4099

Auto

72.0 22%

Teleop

153.7 47%

Endgame

101.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score287.5pts

Blue projected score344.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.3
Score range: 213–420
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 955 vs event baseline 419.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

714.1Season APEX837.7

56.6Auto72

143.6Teleop153.7

69.4Endgame101.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	143
teleop	191	290
endgame	131	97
foul	0	15
total	410	545

Result

Final score

410 – 545

Prediction correct · off by 161.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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