Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.42 – 259.52

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 384

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 663.9 ±14.8

5951Makers Assemble

Provisional

Season APEX 288.7Event APEX 127.71Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 75.14Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 126.57Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 826.1 ±10.7

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 11.81Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 120.57Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 127.14Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5951, 4253, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.4 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5951, 4253, 9450

Auto

72.0 22%

Teleop

170.3 53%

Endgame

80.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5948, 868, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5948, 868, 930

Auto

35.7 15%

Teleop

149.6 62%

Endgame

55.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score329.4pts

Blue projected score259.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.9
Score range: 183–406
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 427.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

663.9Season APEX826.1

72Auto35.7

170.3Teleop149.6

80Endgame55.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	75
teleop	120	266
endgame	102	33
foul	0	10
total	245	384

Result

Final score

245 – 384

Prediction missed · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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