Qualification · Qualification 124

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

543.79 – 399.16

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

581 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 870.9 ±9.9

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 190.74Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 138.67Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 214.38Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.7 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 94.27Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 170.08Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 134.81Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 3044, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.8 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 604, 3044, 948

Auto

114.8 21%

Teleop

270.3 49%

Endgame

161.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2586, 8046, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2586, 8046, 9245

Auto

76.3 19%

Teleop

205.5 51%

Endgame

117.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.94 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score543.8pts

Blue projected score399.2pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.6
Score range: 316–627
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1024 vs event baseline 459.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

870.9Season APEX691.7

114.8Auto76.3

270.3Teleop205.5

161.2Endgame117.7

161Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	84
teleop	337	247
endgame	132	112
foul	0	0
total	581	443

Result

Final score

581 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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