Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

480.27 – 533.45

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

561 – 427

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 762.1 ±11.7

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 147.39Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 226.95Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10291MUTUM-X

Season APEX 270.3Event APEX 105.93Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.2 ±9.3

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 177.03Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 139.96Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 216.46Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6436, 4400, 10291

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6436, 4400, 10291

Auto

79.3 16%

Teleop

276.4 57%

Endgame

127.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 9067, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

533.5 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 687, 9067, 1922

Auto

62.1 12%

Teleop

300.8 57%

Endgame

160.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score480.3pts

Blue projected score533.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 397–616
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 988 vs event baseline 458.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

762.1Season APEX675.2

79.3Auto62.1

276.4Teleop300.8

127.9Endgame160.4

148Consistency184

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	122
teleop	273	209
endgame	185	96
foul	0	0
total	561	427

Result

Final score

561 – 427

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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