Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

478.5 – 384.79

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

588 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 774.5 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 196.28Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 175.97Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 106.25Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.1 ±11.4

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 115.46Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 152.76Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 116.57Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 341, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

478.5 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5216, 341, 4099

Auto

100.6 21%

Teleop

255.5 54%

Endgame

120.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 4561, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.8 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2067, 4561, 6352

Auto

85.1 22%

Teleop

215.6 57%

Endgame

79.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score478.5pts

Blue projected score384.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.7
Score range: 303–561
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1002 vs event baseline 458.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

774.5Season APEX794.1

100.6Auto85.1

255.5Teleop215.6

120.4Endgame79.8

158Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	114
teleop	322	231
endgame	156	69
foul	50	0
total	588	414

Result

Final score

588 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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