Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

540.39 – 308.87

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 900.7 ±13.9

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 172.72Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 91.99Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 275.68Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 719 ±13.9

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 84.66Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 160.78Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 63.43Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 195, 1577, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

540.4 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 195, 1577, 973

Auto

91.4 17%

Teleop

315.7 60%

Endgame

122.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10935, 148, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.9 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10935, 148, 9450

Auto

60.0 20%

Teleop

168.3 57%

Endgame

67.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.93 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score540.4pts

Blue projected score308.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.5
Score range: 226–623
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 850 vs event baseline 458.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

900.7Season APEX719

91.4Auto60

315.7Teleop168.3

122.1Endgame67.9

118Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	47
teleop	364	209
endgame	105	72
foul	10	0
total	522	328

Result

Final score

522 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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