Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.24 – 249.99

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662 ±9.3

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 105.87Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 144.22Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 160.15Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 714.5 ±11.7

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 54.67Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 105.35Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 89.97Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 818, 3276, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.2 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 818, 3276, 8373

Auto

92.7 22%

Teleop

224.2 54%

Endgame

99.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1884, 88, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1884, 88, 4253

Auto

48.8 19%

Teleop

99.9 40%

Endgame

103.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score410.2pts

Blue projected score250pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.3
Score range: 167–493
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 459.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662Season APEX714.5

92.7Auto48.8

224.2Teleop99.9

99.4Endgame103

174Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	71
teleop	247	98
endgame	86	94
foul	20	5
total	472	268

Result

Final score

472 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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