Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

398.49 – 437.82

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

365 – 529

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 740.3 ±9.9

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 146.05Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

233The Pink Team

Season APEX 212.2Event APEX 71.55Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 180.89Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747 ±10.5

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 167.94Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 106.48Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 163.4Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 233, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2194, 233, 3256

Auto

85.2 21%

Teleop

223.4 55%

Endgame

94.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 10903, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2052, 10903, 599

Auto

85.6 20%

Teleop

218.7 51%

Endgame

123.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.5pts

Blue projected score437.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 315–521
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 894 vs event baseline 459.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

740.3Season APEX747

85.2Auto85.6

223.4Teleop218.7

94.1Endgame123.3

127Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	122
teleop	169	276
endgame	86	126
foul	0	5
total	365	529

Result

Final score

365 – 529

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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