Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.91 – 308.1

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

670 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 181 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 890.2 ±10.8

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 53.18Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 108.1Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 246.63Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 742.9 ±15.6

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 129.51Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 119.39Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 59.2Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 5948, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9029, 5948, 2046

Auto

82.4 20%

Teleop

224.7 56%

Endgame

95.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3044, 4590, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.1 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3044, 4590, 11463

Auto

64.0 21%

Teleop

141.0 46%

Endgame

98.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score407.9pts

Blue projected score308.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.8
Score range: 225–491
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 1078 vs event baseline 458.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

890.2Season APEX742.9

82.4Auto64

224.7Teleop141

95.5Endgame98.3

118Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	80
teleop	381	230
endgame	169	98
foul	0	0
total	670	408

Result

Final score

670 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 181 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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