Qualification · Qualification 108

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

431.63 – 489.19

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

466 – 544

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.5 ±9.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 130.18Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 67.6Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 233.85Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 716 ±9.3

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 172.71Rank 33Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 144.02Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 172.46Rank 44Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 424, 9450, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 424, 9450, 695

Auto

93.3 22%

Teleop

204.5 48%

Endgame

128.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 6436, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.2 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 687, 6436, 6647

Auto

88.3 18%

Teleop

275.9 56%

Endgame

126.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score431.6pts

Blue projected score489.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.6
Score range: 350–571
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1010 vs event baseline 455.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.5Season APEX716

93.3Auto88.3

204.5Teleop275.9

128.6Endgame126.7

164Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	129
teleop	255	278
endgame	103	132
foul	15	5
total	466	544

Result

Final score

466 – 544

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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