Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.65 – 462.49

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

369 – 577

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.7 ±8.7

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 45.04Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 167.96Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 98.65Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 688.5 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 104.84Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 150.01Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 207.64Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 8046, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5414, 8046, 88

Auto

69.5 23%

Teleop

153.2 50%

Endgame

86.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 4206, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 10553, 4206, 9408

Auto

100.0 22%

Teleop

257.1 56%

Endgame

98.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score311.7pts

Blue projected score462.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.8
Score range: 230–544
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 455.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.7Season APEX688.5

69.5Auto100

153.2Teleop257.1

86.1Endgame98.7

139Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	115
teleop	189	296
endgame	93	151
foul	0	15
total	369	577

Result

Final score

369 – 577

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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