Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.63 – 334.75

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

527 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 106.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 794.2 ±13.9

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 165Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 159.21Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 85.42Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 705.9 ±8.7

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 142.64Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 96.27Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 95.84Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 8373, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.6 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 341, 8373, 1577

Auto

94.1 23%

Teleop

237.9 58%

Endgame

75.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2194, 4099, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2194, 4099, 818

Auto

74.2 22%

Teleop

172.5 51%

Endgame

91.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.68 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score409.6pts

Blue projected score334.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.9
Score range: 253–492
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 958 vs event baseline 455.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

794.2Season APEX705.9

94.1Auto74.2

237.9Teleop172.5

75.9Endgame91.5

154Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	113
teleop	288	272
endgame	171	46
foul	5	0
total	527	431

Result

Final score

527 – 431

Prediction correct · off by 106.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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