Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

371.97 – 487.48

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

313 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.3 ±15.1

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 72.12Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 206.67Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10935Krono

Provisional

Season APEX 260.5Event APEX 93.18Rank 70Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.1 ±8.7

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 134.69Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 208.42Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 144.37Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11463, 2996, 10935

/ 100 compat

Projected

372 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11463, 2996, 10935

Auto

68.2 19%

Teleop

195.9 56%

Endgame

85.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2370, 1922, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

487.5 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2370, 1922, 930

Auto

75.7 16%

Teleop

294.9 61%

Endgame

113.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score372pts

Blue projected score487.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.5
Score range: 290–569
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 891 vs event baseline 456.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.3Season APEX779.1

68.2Auto75.7

195.9Teleop294.9

85.7Endgame113.3

179Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	52
teleop	190	340
endgame	41	186
foul	0	0
total	313	578

Result

Final score

313 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 74.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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