Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.62 – 352.02

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

577 – 530

Prediction correct · off by 176.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 771.4 ±8.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 105.13Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 151.01Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 145.48Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.8 ±10.5

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 145.83Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 122.98Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 83.21Rank 65Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 599, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 9245, 599, 148

Auto

85.2 21%

Teleop

203.5 51%

Endgame

113.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 3276, 1902

/ 100 compat

Projected

352 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 3276, 1902

Auto

64.7 19%

Teleop

183.4 54%

Endgame

92.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score401.6pts

Blue projected score352pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 270–484
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1107 vs event baseline 455.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

771.4Season APEX661.8

85.2Auto64.7

203.5Teleop183.4

113.4Endgame92.3

114Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	99
teleop	293	319
endgame	205	112
foul	0	0
total	577	530

Result

Final score

577 – 530

Prediction correct · off by 176.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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