Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

348.66 – 654.93

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 642

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.2 ±10.5

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 89.95Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 119.01Rank 35Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6436NARBULUT PARS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 139.7Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 930.5 ±8.7

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 235.79Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 194.9Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 224.24Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4253, 4099, 6436

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.7 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4253, 4099, 6436

Auto

78.6 23%

Teleop

168.6 49%

Endgame

94.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 5549, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

654.9 pts

~3.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1796, 5549, 604

Auto

124.6 19%

Teleop

372.5 57%

Endgame

153.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.9 · Blue 3.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score348.7pts

Blue projected score654.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -306.3
Score range: 264–740
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 905 vs event baseline 472.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.2Season APEX930.5

78.6Auto124.6

168.6Teleop372.5

94.2Endgame153.7

157Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	134
teleop	116	353
endgame	51	155
foul	0	0
total	263	642

Result

Final score

263 – 642

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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