Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

787.28 – 559.87

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 173.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 918.1 ±8.1

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 170.09Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 373.55Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 243.64Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 786.2 ±9.3

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 177.69Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 167.28Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 214.9Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

787.3 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4206, 2910, 2046

Auto

142.6 18%

Teleop

432.9 56%

Endgame

203.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3966, 930, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.9 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3966, 930, 1833

Auto

96.1 17%

Teleop

313.1 57%

Endgame

143.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.95 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score787.3pts

Blue projected score559.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.4
Score range: 475–872
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1001 vs event baseline 472.4.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

918.1Season APEX786.2

142.6Auto96.1

432.9Teleop313.1

203.6Endgame143.2

153Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	135
teleop	247	208
endgame	155	115
foul	5	10
total	533	468

Result

Final score

533 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 173.1 pts

Match videos

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