Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

784.37 – 562.12

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

570 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 151.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.2 ±8.1

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 146.13Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 383.24Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 255Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.1 ±9.3

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 173.21Rank 54Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 169.93Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 218.98Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

784.4 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 868, 2910, 2046

Auto

128.7 17%

Teleop

435.6 56%

Endgame

213.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 180, 930, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

562.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 180, 930, 1833

Auto

120.8 22%

Teleop

302.8 54%

Endgame

135.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.94 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score784.4pts

Blue projected score562.1pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.3
Score range: 477–869
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1043 vs event baseline 472.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

957.2Season APEX801.1

128.7Auto120.8

435.6Teleop302.8

213.8Endgame135.6

139Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	115
teleop	310	220
endgame	119	138
foul	15	0
total	570	473

Result

Final score

570 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 151.7 pts

Match videos

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