New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

493.95 – 308.56

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

481 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 134.89Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 162.42Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 196.64Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.9 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 163.69Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 90.3Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 54.57Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 1922, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 1922, 2877

Auto

65.6 14%

Teleop

287.5 59%

Endgame

132.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 8013, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 8013, 177

Auto

66.8 18%

Teleop

216.4 58%

Endgame

93.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score493.9pts

Blue projected score308.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.4
Score range: 253–550
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 919 vs event baseline 312.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.1Season APEX586.9

65.6Auto66.8

287.5Teleop216.4

132.6Endgame93.1

92Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	77
teleop	292	237
endgame	89	119
foul	5	5
total	481	438

Result

Final score

481 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Match videos

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