New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

502.06 – 499.46

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 516

Prediction missed · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.8 ±9.3

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 114.89Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 177.11Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 210.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±9.3

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 48.98Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 227.78Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 222.7Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 176, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 228, 176, 7407

Auto

99.7 20%

Teleop

272.4 56%

Endgame

118.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 6328, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

499.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 6328, 88

Auto

104.0 21%

Teleop

288.0 58%

Endgame

104.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score502.1pts

Blue projected score499.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 443–558
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 843 vs event baseline 311.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.8Season APEX666.4

99.7Auto104

272.4Teleop288

118Endgame104.5

79Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	105
teleop	176	281
endgame	23	120
foul	30	10
total	327	516

Result

Final score

327 – 516

Prediction missed · off by 95.8 pts

Match videos

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