New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

642.82 – 495.5

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

492 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 851.6 ±8.8

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 101.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 265.56Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 275.73Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 135.53Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 162.31Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 197.66Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2648, 3467, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

642.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2648, 3467, 6329

Auto

130.6 21%

Teleop

360.5 58%

Endgame

131.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1922, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 1922, 2877

Auto

67.8 14%

Teleop

290.8 60%

Endgame

126.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score642.8pts

Blue projected score495.5pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.3
Score range: 440–699
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 965 vs event baseline 309.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

851.6Season APEX679.1

130.6Auto67.8

360.5Teleop290.8

131.4Endgame126.7

94Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	55
teleop	293	265
endgame	126	153
foul	0	0
total	492	473

Result

Final score

492 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 pts

Match videos

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