New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.2 – 283.33

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 415

Prediction missed · off by 150.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539 ±8.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 154.89Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 90.6Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 144.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.9 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 155.53Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 80.86Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 46.94Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8046, 5962, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8046, 5962, 4909

Auto

63.2 17%

Teleop

204.8 54%

Endgame

112.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 8013, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 8013, 177

Auto

70.0 19%

Teleop

209.2 56%

Endgame

93.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score390.2pts

Blue projected score283.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.9
Score range: 227–446
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 309.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539Season APEX586.9

63.2Auto70

204.8Teleop209.2

112.9Endgame93

74Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	47
teleop	122	244
endgame	40	94
foul	0	30
total	220	415

Result

Final score

220 – 415

Prediction missed · off by 150.9 pts

Match videos

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