New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.23 – 430.25

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 413

Prediction missed · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.4

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 76.41Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 126.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 125.15Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542 ±9.8

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 71.97Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 179.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 178.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 319, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 95, 319, 190

Auto

53.9 17%

Teleop

170.2 54%

Endgame

88.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 467, 1699, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 467, 1699, 166

Auto

81.3 19%

Teleop

232.9 56%

Endgame

103.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score328.2pts

Blue projected score430.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102
Score range: 272–486
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 874 vs event baseline 308.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.6Season APEX542

53.9Auto81.3

170.2Teleop232.9

88.6Endgame103.1

110Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	88
teleop	242	182
endgame	137	123
foul	5	20
total	461	413

Result

Final score

461 – 413

Prediction missed · off by 75 pts

Match videos

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