New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

471.97 – 361.62

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

593 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 241.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±9.3

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 40.73Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 218.29Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 212.95Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.9 ±9.8

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 181.74Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 106.48Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 73.4Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 6328, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

472 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 6328, 88

Auto

92.7 19%

Teleop

283.9 59%

Endgame

103.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 8013, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 238, 8013, 177

Auto

65.8 19%

Teleop

195.2 56%

Endgame

88.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score472pts

Blue projected score361.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.4
Score range: 306–528
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 308.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.4Season APEX586.9

92.7Auto65.8

283.9Teleop195.2

103.1Endgame88.6

55Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	88
teleop	306	261
endgame	113	112
foul	30	5
total	593	0

Result

Final score

593 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 241.3 pts

Match videos

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