New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.83 – 386.46

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

506 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.8 ±9.3

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 176.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 115.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 209.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539 ±8.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 153Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 88.5Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 144.96Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 228, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 176, 228, 7407

Auto

95.8 20%

Teleop

273.1 56%

Endgame

118.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 5962, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8046, 5962, 4909

Auto

61.4 16%

Teleop

205.5 54%

Endgame

111.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score501.8pts

Blue projected score386.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.4
Score range: 331–557
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 921 vs event baseline 307.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.8Season APEX539

95.8Auto61.4

273.1Teleop205.5

118Endgame111.6

79Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	72
teleop	270	205
endgame	125	123
foul	0	15
total	506	415

Result

Final score

506 – 415

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Match videos

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