New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

421.72 – 473.01

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

447 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542 ±9.8

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 69.41Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 180.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 171.85Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 128.74Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 155.59Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 188.68Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 467, 1699, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 467, 1699, 166

Auto

83.3 20%

Teleop

238.1 57%

Endgame

94.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1922, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

473 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 1922, 2877

Auto

65.6 14%

Teleop

272.0 59%

Endgame

126.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score421.7pts

Blue projected score473pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.3
Score range: 367–528
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1013 vs event baseline 305.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542Season APEX679.1

83.3Auto65.6

238.1Teleop272

94.2Endgame126.8

91Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	77
teleop	219	361
endgame	141	128
foul	10	0
total	447	566

Result

Final score

447 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Match videos

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