New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

581.15 – 321.97

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

514 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 896.7 ±8.1

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 34.86Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 268.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 277.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.4

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 76.85Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 120.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 124.19Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 3467, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

581.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6201, 3467, 6329

Auto

122.2 21%

Teleop

325.2 56%

Endgame

129.0 22%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 95, 319, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

322 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 95, 319, 190

Auto

50.9 17%

Teleop

168.3 55%

Endgame

87.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score581.2pts

Blue projected score322pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 259.2
Score range: 267–636
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 877 vs event baseline 304.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

896.7Season APEX571.6

122.2Auto50.9

325.2Teleop168.3

129Endgame87.5

66Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	71
teleop	232	192
endgame	102	100
foul	40	0
total	514	363

Result

Final score

514 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Match videos

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