New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.05 – 492.25

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

500 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±9.3

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 47.01Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 226.08Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 221.96Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 134.66Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 161.2Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 196.39Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 6328, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 6328, 88

Auto

106.5 22%

Teleop

279.5 57%

Endgame

104.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1922, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 1922, 2877

Auto

73.2 15%

Teleop

288.9 59%

Endgame

123.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score495.1pts

Blue projected score492.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.8
Score range: 435–552
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 316.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.4Season APEX679.1

106.5Auto73.2

279.5Teleop288.9

104.8Endgame123.5

38Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	42
teleop	302	292
endgame	68	112
foul	15	0
total	500	446

Result

Final score

500 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Match videos

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