New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

358.52 – 493.66

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

479 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 135.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 88.65Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 134.63Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±9.3

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 134.79Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 161.87Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 197Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 319, 95, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 95, 190

Auto

63.4 18%

Teleop

188.7 55%

Endgame

93.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 1922, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1153, 1922, 2877

Auto

70.2 14%

Teleop

289.0 59%

Endgame

126.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score358.5pts

Blue projected score493.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.1
Score range: 302–551
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 965 vs event baseline 315.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.6Season APEX679.1

63.4Auto70.2

188.7Teleop289

93.4Endgame126.9

111Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	95
teleop	221	289
endgame	164	102
foul	5	0
total	479	486

Result

Final score

479 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Match videos

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