New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

556.33 – 504.1

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 896.7 ±8.1

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 32.23Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 256.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 267.24Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±9.3

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 50.47Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 228.65Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 224.98Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 3467, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

556.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6201, 3467, 6329

Auto

119.1 22%

Teleop

299.1 55%

Endgame

122.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 6328, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

504.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1071, 6328, 88

Auto

104.1 21%

Teleop

287.8 58%

Endgame

108.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score556.3pts

Blue projected score504.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 448–612
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 943 vs event baseline 313.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

896.7Season APEX666.4

119.1Auto104.1

299.1Teleop287.8

122.9Endgame108.3

68Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	122
teleop	236	229
endgame	123	89
foul	0	5
total	498	445

Result

Final score

498 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 pts

Match videos

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