New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

470.21 – 356.06

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 351

Prediction missed · off by 124.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.8 ±9.3

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 104.78Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 166.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 198.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.4

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 134.22Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 87.44Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 134.4Rank 12Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 176, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

470.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 228, 176, 7407

Auto

99.1 22%

Teleop

254.8 56%

Endgame

101.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 319, 95, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 319, 95, 190

Auto

58.0 17%

Teleop

185.8 54%

Endgame

99.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score470.2pts

Blue projected score356.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.1
Score range: 299–527
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 313.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.8Season APEX571.6

99.1Auto58

254.8Teleop185.8

101.1Endgame99.6

86Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	91
teleop	120	194
endgame	39	51
foul	0	15
total	227	351

Result

Final score

227 – 351

Prediction missed · off by 124.1 pts

Match videos

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