New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.49 – 125.12

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.2 ±10.4

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 50.63Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 135.88Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 98.98Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.4 ±10.4

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 33.51Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 68.89Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 22.72Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11483, 1153, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11483, 1153, 839

Auto

37.7 14%

Teleop

153.6 57%

Endgame

79.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 177, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1119, 177, 7153

Auto

36.3 32%

Teleop

44.5 40%

Endgame

31.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285.5pts

Blue projected score125.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.4
Score range: 70–340
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 305.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.2Season APEX357.4

37.7Auto36.3

153.6Teleop44.5

79.9Endgame31.5

46Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	49
teleop	109	79
endgame	41	43
foul	5	10
total	206	181

Result

Final score

206 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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