New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

462.74 – 679.22

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

377 – 538

Prediction correct · off by 113.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.9 ±9.8

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 184.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 188.75Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 89.16Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 911.2 ±8.1

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 232.26Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 167.5Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 279.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 1699, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 176, 1699, 1100

Auto

71.8 15%

Teleop

284.8 61%

Endgame

110.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 1922, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

679.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6328, 1922, 3467

Auto

120.1 18%

Teleop

404.9 59%

Endgame

156.4 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score462.7pts

Blue projected score679.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216.5
Score range: 408–734
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 303.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.9Season APEX911.2

71.8Auto120.1

284.8Teleop404.9

110Endgame156.4

65Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	128
teleop	183	321
endgame	87	89
foul	15	0
total	377	538

Result

Final score

377 – 538

Prediction correct · off by 113.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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