New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.81 – 295.53

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±10.4

95Grasshoppers

Season APEX 164.4Event APEX 79.9Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 43.77Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 103.14Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.4 ±9.8

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 214.46Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 4.01Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 77.06Rank 45Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 95, 1071, 2648

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 95, 1071, 2648

Auto

35.6 17%

Teleop

131.6 61%

Endgame

48.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 88, 1991, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 88, 1991, 558

Auto

61.4 21%

Teleop

156.0 52%

Endgame

79.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.8pts

Blue projected score295.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.7
Score range: 172–351
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 303.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX418.4

35.6Auto61.4

131.6Teleop156

48.4Endgame79.9

127Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	77
teleop	126	143
endgame	23	63
foul	0	0
total	187	283

Result

Final score

187 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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