New England FIRST District Championship - Newsom Division presented by GE Aerospace

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.39 – 229.64

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.7 ±9.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 154.49Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 119.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 45.11Rank 46Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.2 ±10.4

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 112.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 73.1Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 43.83Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8046, 319, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8046, 319, 61

Auto

45.3 14%

Teleop

174.4 55%

Endgame

96.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 2423, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 178, 2423, 4761

Auto

53.1 24%

Teleop

130.6 59%

Endgame

38.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319.4pts

Blue projected score229.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.8
Score range: 175–374
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 304.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.7Season APEX370.2

45.3Auto53.1

174.4Teleop130.6

96.4Endgame38.5

67Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	44
teleop	185	107
endgame	68	29
foul	5	0
total	319	180

Result

Final score

319 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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